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Banking asset quality by Edelweiss

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There are three primary source of lending in infrastructure credit—power, telecommunications, and roads/ports. Our interactions with respective analysts and external reports indicate that there is no significant slowdown in execution, while long term demand continues to be intact. 8 tn. 0 Source: Company, Edelweiss research Infrastructure: Headwinds despite a rosy picture: Despite credit growth estimates (from Planning Commission) indicating a comfortable growth of over ~21% CAGR for FY08-12, the growth is fraught with a few headwinds.

Hence, banks could have converted some of the working capital lending in to long term funding. Sectors like cement, metals, and auto have witnessed the sharpest decline in utilisation of their working capitals. 0 1998 5,000 1997 (INR bn) Chart 19: Rise in term lending, reducing working capital cycle and strong profits required less working capital Working capital cycle Source: RBI, Business Beacon, Edelweiss research Leverage still low and coverage ratios high Our coverage of over 2,400 companies across 20 sectors spanning over 14 years indicates that corporate balance sheets are healthy.

It has been steadily declining its exposure to vehicle loans from 8% of loan book in FY06 to ~3% in FY08, and has withdrawn from the two wheeler market. Asset quality is stable with gross NPAs less than 1% in FY09. We expect retail NPA (before write-off) to increase gradually to 3-4% by FY09-10E. State Bank of India Despite being the largest bank, SBI is still growing ahead of the industry with its loan assets growing at ~25% CAGR in the past three years. It has one of the most diversified portfolios with retail contributing about ~20% to its loan book.

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